Seminar (Dept. of Finance)

Theme：(Re-)Imag(in)ing Price Trends

Speaker：Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

Time：2021-12-03 10:00

Address：Zoom Meeting

Language：Chinese/English

Venue：Zoom Meeting

https://zoom.us/j/89292446027?pwd=RU1HUHh2WGZtUGlOaUpTTU40NGFnQT09

Meeting ID：892 9244 6027

password：1203

ABSTRACT:

We reconsider the idea of trend-based predictability using methods that flexibly learn price patterns that are most predictive of future returns, rather than testing hypothesized or pre-specified patterns (e.g., momentum and reversal). Our raw predictor data are images -- stock-level price charts -- from which we elicit the price patterns that best predict returns using machine learning image analysis methods. The predictive patterns we identify are largely distinct from trend signals commonly analyzed in the literature, give more accurate return predictions, translate into more profitable investment strategies, and are robust to a battery of specification variations. They also appear context-independent: Predictive patterns estimated at short time scales (e.g., daily data) give similarly strong predictions when applied at longer time scales (e.g., monthly), and patterns learned from US stocks predict equally well in international markets.

SHORT BIOGRAPHY:

Dacheng Xiu’s research interests include developing statistical methodologies and applying them to financial data, while exploring their economic implications. His earlier research involved risk measurement and portfolio management with high-frequency data and econometric modeling of derivatives. His current work focuses on developing machine learning solutions to big-data problems in empirical asset pricing.

Xiu’s work has appeared in Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of the American Statistical Association, and Annals of Statistics. He is a Co-Editor for the Journal of Financial Econometrics, an Associate Editor for the Review of Financial Studies, Management Science, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, the Econometrics Journal, and Journal of Empirical Finance. He has received several recognitions for his research, including Fellow of the Society for Financial Econometrics, Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics, Swiss Finance Institute Outstanding Paper Award, AQR Insight Award, and Best Conference Paper Prize from the European Finance Association. In 2017, Xiu launched a website that provides up-to-date realized volatilities of individual stocks, as well as equity, currency, and commodity futures. These daily volatilities are calculated from intraday transactions and the methodologies are based on his research of high-frequency data.

Xiu earned his PhD and MA in applied mathematics from Princeton University, where he was also a student at the Bendheim Center for Finance. Prior to his graduate studies, he obtained a BS in mathematics from the University of Science and Technology of China.