Seminar（Dept. of Trade Economics）

Title: Asymmetric Migration Response: An Application to Welfare Analysis in Climate Change

Speaker: Pin SUN (Renmin University of China)

Time:14:00-15:30pm, December 21st, 2023 (Thursday)

Venue:Room 1008, Mingde Business Building

Language: English

ABSTRACT:

Migration is an important channel helping people adapt to climate change. By analyzingthe impacts of Hurricane Katrina (New Orleans) in 2005, I empirically show the limitation of the assumption that locations are equally substitutable, which is often imposed in the migration models used for the adaptation analysis. On this subject, I develop a full-fledged dynamic nested logit migration framework, in which nests depend on both geography and location’s characteristics, that allows for heterogeneous migration responses. Then, I propose a reduced-form approach to identify and estimate migration elasticities. Using a unique dataset, I demonstrate that the elasticities vary substantially across locations in the U.S. Through simulation, I further verify that my model offers a prediction about the disproportionate nature of migrants’ relocation (Katrina), better than previous models do. The model delivers two important policy implications. First, places directly affected by climate changes are more vulnerable because the adaptation process is slower than predicted by conventional models. Second, locations that are close substitutes receive larger inflows of migrants who tend to stay longer than standard models suggest. This implies that public assistance programs supporting migrants’ relocation should be designed with more focus on the need of affected areas that are close substitutes.

SHORT BIOGRAPHY:

Pin SUN is currently serving as an Assistant Professor at the School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China. He earned his PhD from the Pennsylvania State University in 2023, specializing in the fields of energy economics, environmental economics, spatial economics and trade. His research currently focuses on carbon neutrality and energy transition, infrastructure investment, migration and AI-induced innovation.